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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.